The second wave of CV19 in France

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Re: The second wave of CV19 in France

Post by niemeyjt »

Will it be July or later?

Flu starts later as I recall - once heating is on, windows closed, outside cooler, schools go back etc - will it be similar with CV?

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Re: The second wave of CV19 in France

Post by jsks »

Can't speak for France but I am on notice from hospital I worked at to keep July and August free. Why would that be, I wonder?

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Re: The second wave of CV19 in France

Post by Elizabeth »

The good thing in the UK the last couple of weeks is we are seeing the return of the ‘normal ‘ patient. The strokes and the chest pains etc.The worry we had was we were going to spend the next dog knows how long picking up the pieces of the conditions that had worsened from being left as people didn’t want to go to hospital
A friend worked on gastro at the weekend and she said the lockdown drinkers are beginning to hit now so that is something to look forward to 😱

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Re: The second wave of CV19 in France

Post by jsks »

Elizabeth wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 11:33 am
The good thing in the UK the last couple of weeks is we are seeing the return of the ‘normal ‘ patient. The strokes and the chest pains etc.The worry we had was we were going to spend the next dog knows how long picking up the pieces of the conditions that had worsened from being left as people didn’t want to go to hospital
A friend worked on gastro at the weekend and she said the lockdown drinkers are beginning to hit now so that is something to look forward to 😱
A and E and admissions will probably be fairly chaotic for a good while yet with limited bedspace under competition from all depts I guess.

I think electives are many weeks away yet.

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Re: The second wave of CV19 in France

Post by Le Démerdeur »

I was amazed at how few people were in A&E Monday at midnight, usually its packed with bloodied people under the influence of alcohol or substances.

My opthtalmic surgeon said that all staff at the CHU were finally all going to be tested from 11 Mai, when asked confirmed that it was sérologique testing for anti-corps so it will be interesting to see what percentage have gained immunity in the environment where they take the highest measures to prevent contracting the virus.

Regional paper says all medical staff will be tested by 11 Juin followed by the administrative and technical services, its voluntary.

I am surprised that it has taken this long to start and will take so long to implement but it would appear the the list of reliable homologated tests was only released a week ago.

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Re: The second wave of CV19 in France

Post by rabbit »

exile wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 10:36 am
They don't all have to get it at once. Infection rate starts to rise - lockdown - perhaps regionally and not nationally.
The virus has not gone away. It will not now go away since it is too widely spread around the world.
Our ability to eradicate viruses is almost non-existent. In world history we have succeeded just once - with the smallpox virus. That was only possible because Jenner noted that people who had caught cowpox (milk maids mainly) did not get smallpox and started to vaccinate people with cowpox. That started in 1796 and smallpox was eventually eradicated in 1977 and declared so by WHO in 1980. So 200 years (all but) for our one and only success.
It doesn't matter how long it takes, but if 90% of the population are infected before there are treatments then a lot more people are going to die. We have to stop the spread until a treatment/vaccine is available

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Re: The second wave of CV19 in France

Post by exile »

Realistically you can't. You could lock everyone up, but they are already going stir crazy. Even then the essential workers need to keep things going, so the virus will spread through that group and then back to their families. People have to eat and so go to supermarkets where there is ample opportunity for the virus to spread to those locked down.

Meanwhile the country/world economy goes bust. Not even rich nations can afford to pay most of the people not to work for perhaps ever. And of course pension funds dry up, banks go bust and even those who don't need to work are in penury.

So yes people will die of C19 - just as people will die of Ebola, TB, cancer and thousands of other conditions. It is unavoidable unless/until we have a 100% effective vaccine (and few are 100% effective). The hope has to be that infection levels are kept under control so that those severely infected can get the best possible treatment. That is what flattening the curve is all about.

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Re: The second wave of CV19 in France

Post by Le Démerdeur »

Rabbit.

In which case then you should logically apply that to seasonal flu and other viruses, the actions of all governments have been to slow down the spread to a manageable rate, neither they nor we can stop it, it will have to run out of fuel, all we can do is to minimise the casualties and enusre that those whose passage of the virus become life threatening get the best possible care that they can.

Soon we will have the sérologique results from the CHU Amiens and all of the other hospitals where its being done, I am actually hoping that they will find that a significant propertion of them have already contracted the virus and gained antibodies, if thats the case in an establishment with the highest levels of protection & where the people are knowledgeable, disciplined & have the means to protect themselves then it will be higher still in the general population.

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Re: The second wave of CV19 in France

Post by rabbit »

Exile and LD
I agree. What I don’t agree with are statements like 90 % of the population are going to be infected. With a mortality rate of 0.28% that would mean around 150000 deaths in France. Flu mortality is much lower and is less infectious.
We have to control it until treatment improves. Track and trace, testing, continuing with Hygiene procedures and local lockdowns for hotspots. China, s Korea, Denmark etc seem to be managing it

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Re: The second wave of CV19 in France

Post by Le Démerdeur »

I think we all agree and are hoping for the same things.

No matter how I try to express this it sounds wrong and awfull but its not meant to be, I am hoping that when the sérologique testing has reached sufficient numbers for the results to be statistically significant that we will find that a lot more people have had it than the numbers to date would indicate, it seems to be the way that previous epidemics ended.

I have little confidence in my spelling nowadays, the spellcheck is set to the French language, I'm not sure if I spelt epidemic correctly or if it should be epedemic, often the French spellcheck will help me, this time it wanted to write "spermicide" :lol:

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