The second wave of CV19 in France

[mysty]

I got told earlier this week by a deputy Mairie that there will be no second round of infection here as its dying out.
South Korea has just had 50 new cases. I do not think its finished yet.
If travel restrictions are lifted on the 2nd of June I think the virus will probably spread as well.
It would be nice to get back to normal.

[Hal]

It would be nice to get back to normal.

On a serious note though, we the locals, south of Toulouse have been in an enviable spot without any problems with the virus or food stocks and have been quietly getting on with things by being sensible.

Now that the word has been interpreted by many French up North, and Belgium, that it is open and free for all, we are noticing many new cars around with number plates from the North and North East. No doubt their attestations for travel show that there are many more sick aunts and and uncles down here than there really are that need looking after. Our worry is that having been nice and quiet during the lockdown, our trouble may well be beginning.

[Crystal]

I think if we could keep the borders closed indefinately and internal movement restrictions in place, your deputy Maire could be right, but we can't - and so sooner or later most of the 90% of the population who haven't yet been exposed to the virus will be infected...I fear it's not a question of 'if', but 'when' the next wave will arrive...and how big.

[niemeyjt]

On the other hand:

Second more deadly wave of coronavirus expected 'to hit Europe this winter'

Europe's top WHO official warns that second spike could coincide with outbreaks of other infectious diseases

see: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... eak-covid/

[rabbit]

I think if we could keep the borders closed indefinately and internal movement restrictions in place, your deputy Maire could be right, but we can't - and so sooner or later most of the 90% of the population who haven't yet been exposed to the virus will be infected...I fear it's not a question of 'if', but 'when' the next wave will arrive...and how big.

But we cannot afford for 90% of population to be infected. This would swamp the health service and result in hundred of thousands of deaths. We have to take measures to stop the spread

[SW31girl]

It would be nice to get back to normal.

On a serious note though, we the locals, south of Toulouse have been in an enviable spot without any problems with the virus or food stocks and have been quietly getting on with things by being sensible.

Now that the word has been interpreted by many French up North, and Belgium, that it is open and free for all, we are noticing many new cars around with number plates from the North and North East. No doubt their attestations for travel show that there are many more sick aunts and and uncles down here than there really are that need looking after. Our worry is that having been nice and quiet during the lockdown, our trouble may well be beginning.w

We’re in a similar area to you and are dreading the parisien/northern influx in July and August. We have deliberately closed our Gite, which is attached to our house, to reduce the risk of contamination. But they’ll be in the shops, restaurants etc.

[Aardvark]

On the other hand:

Second more deadly wave of coronavirus expected 'to hit Europe this winter'

Europe's top WHO official warns that second spike could coincide with outbreaks of other infectious diseases

see: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... eak-covid/

[Elizabeth]

I think if we could keep the borders closed indefinately and internal movement restrictions in place, your deputy Maire could be right, but we can't - and so sooner or later most of the 90% of the population who haven't yet been exposed to the virus will be infected...I fear it's not a question of 'if', but 'when' the next wave will arrive...and how big.

But we cannot afford for 90% of population to be infected. This would swamp the health service and result in hundred of thousands of deaths. We have to take measures to stop the spread

Yes but some of those 90% would be asymptomatic,others mildly infected etc etc. That doesn’t mean I don’t agree we have to take measures to stop the spread we do

[exile]

They don't all have to get it at once. Infection rate starts to rise - lockdown - perhaps regionally and not nationally.
The virus has not gone away. It will not now go away since it is too widely spread around the world.
Our ability to eradicate viruses is almost non-existent. In world history we have succeeded just once - with the smallpox virus. That was only possible because Jenner noted that people who had caught cowpox (milk maids mainly) did not get smallpox and started to vaccinate people with cowpox. That started in 1796 and smallpox was eventually eradicated in 1977 and declared so by WHO in 1980. So 200 years (all but) for our one and only success.

[Crystal]

I think we'll have to find a way of coping with regular lockdowns until a vaccine, or a cure is found.

I read somewhere that the next wave is predicted to kick off at the end of July - if I get time later I'll try to find it again.

Edit : in France that is